Most of us use the word “trend” without paying much attention to its actual meaning. That's OK for casual conversation, but when you’re identifying trends as part of a planning process, you should be more precise.
Let's look at the dictionary first. In the Merriam-Webster Dictionary, we find “trend” defined as
1 : a line of general direction or movement [the trend of the coast turned toward the west] 2 a : a prevailing tendency or inclination : DRIFT b : a general movement : SWING [the trend toward suburban living] c : a current style or preference : VOGUE [new fashion trends] d : a line of development : APPROACH 3 : the general movement in the course of time of a statistically detectable change; also : a statistical curve reflecting such a change
That's better, but it's not good enough for our purposes. To be most useful for planning purposes a trend should have three characteristics: Data; Direction; and, Duration.
Data are the raw facts. What are we talking about? Instead of saying that people are “time starved,” do some work to define what that means. This kind of work is not possible in a conference setting like the one at NAMM, but you can do it yourself and, if you do, you will have a better understanding of just what you’re talking about.
Let's say you want to talk about a trend in potential school band students. Defining your measurement to be the number of sixth grade students will let you track any trends more accurately.
Data can also refer to a clear measurement of what you’re talking about. It's far more helpful, for example, to know that the number of sixth graders will be increasing at 12 percent per year.
Duration is time. How long can we expect the number of those sixth graders to increase?
And, of course, there's Direction. Which way is the trend moving? This is deceptively simple because we have a tendency to identify a trend and then project it out forever. In the case of our sixth graders, you’ll find that the growth curve will turn at some point. Knowing when is very important.
It's usually best to have individuals identify key trends that they perceive and then move to a small group setting to clarify and refine trends and to select the ones you want to use for further work. Here are some guidelines.
Do the clarifying, refining, and selecting in small groups. Keep the group size at six or less.
When you ask your group to narrow down the number of trends for discussion, ask them to list six key trends. Why six? Well, it seems to work. Six seems to be a small enough number that most small groups can come up with enough trends in a short period of time, but large enough to get them to stretch beyond the two or three most obvious.
Once you’ve got your lists, it's time to move on to trend ranking.
We had six small groups working in our session. I’m going to label them A through F. Here are each of their lists.
Group A
- Increase and stability of big box stores.
- Increased use of e-commerce
- Increase in self-service and lack of customer service
- Convenience
- Family togetherness
- Dependence on technology
Group B
- Wireless
- Cheaper, better, and more common PA systems in clubs and churches
- Home recording and CD manufacturing
- Modeling — guitars, effects, voices, etc.
- Karaoke — the “non-musician” musician
- Churches — from piano and organ to full bands
Group C
- Music type continually changes
- Females have bigger impact on music sales
- Continued increase in online sales
- Higher incidence of perks in product sales
- Products for younger kids in non-classical themes
- Increase in brand name penetration
Group D
- Musical and cultural styles are cyclical
- Global trade
- Digital music
- People's time is more limited
- Information availability
- Women are the buying decision makers
Group E
- Decline in piano production and sales
- Wholesalers and manufacturers contacting consumers directly
- Declining interest in playing instruments
- More online involvement
- Shrinking margins
- Global retail environment
Group F
- Aging Baby Boomers
- Manufacturing outside the US
- Shrinking music education budget in schools
- Recreational music
- Growth of non-traditional retailers
- Music therapy, music wellness
Once we had reviewed all the lists, we moved on to Trend Ranking.
