The 22 February 1999 New York Times included an article on the advent of digital projectors. Digital projectors use magnetic tape or digital disks instead of reels of film.
WALLY'S COMMENT: · The article outlines several ways in which digital projects will change the way things are done in movie theaters. Thinking about this gives you a good idea of how basic technology changes can drive major changes in infrastructure as well as help you identify the kinds of problems that might crop up in your business. Let's take a look at that digital projector technology.
The first and most obvious thing is that digital technology and a digital projector require a very different set of skills from the ones used in the old film projectors. On the one hand, that means that theaters may be looking for different people to be projectionists. But, on the other hand, it may also create a barrier to the adoption of this technology in resistance from the people who already have the jobs and see them disappearing.
Once the projectors do go digital, the very adoption of the technology opens up several possibilities that simply aren't there when movies are on film.
Movies can now be delivered to theaters via satellite. Instead of moving the atoms of the film around the country, we'll be moving the bytes.
If you have a digital projector, you can incorporate all kinds of special effects into the projector that can be hooked up to other kinds of infrastructure technology. Like what? Well, like machinery that will shape the seats during an earthquake movie, or let the scent of the jungle in a movie set in that venue waft through the theater. So, if that happens, what's next?
Probably we'll see development of theaters that gain competitive advantage by going with the new technology. Then we'll move through a fairly standard adoption curve over about a 15 to 20 year period.
Now imagine that we're developing this system. We've got a digital projector that can grab signals off satellites and project them with special effects into a theater which needs to be equipped for enhanced delivery. Once we've got that, it's a real short step to starting to incorporate live events, such as sporting events, into a theater environment.
What does all this mean to you? Start thinking how basic changes in technology have several different effects. They certainly affect jobs and costs, but they also create new opportunities that go on to create changes in infrastructure.
In almost any basic change in the core function of a business, there will be a fairly standard adoption process that will take 15 to 20 years. That curve will stretch out a bit longer if there are large capital outlays involved or if the capital investment cycle is longer than in most industries.
This article originally appeared in Wally Bock's Briefing Memo newsletter in March 1999.
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